A Dynamic Relationship Between Internet Search Activity, Housing Price, and Trading Volume (인터넷 검색 활동과 주택 가격 및 거래량 간 동적 관계 분석)

김대원; Yu, Jung Suk (유정석)

A Dynamic Relationship Between Internet Search Activity, Housing Price, and Trading Volume

Korea Real Estate Review
2014, 24(2), pp.125-140
Publisher : korea real estate research institute
Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate

김대원 ¹, Yu, Jung Suk ²

¹단국대학교 일반대학원 도시계획및부동산학과 박사과정
²단국대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

In the housing market, the internet searching activity trail means collective thinking and represents purchase intent. Therefore, if we can capture the meaningful relationship between the internet searching activity, the housing price, and the housing trading volume, it would mean we can predict the future using the internet searching activity data as a index for the housing market. In this context, we conducted the empirical research to examine the dynamic relationship between the internet searching activity and the housing price and trading volume. Using the “NAVER Trend" data as a proxy for the internet searching activity, the apartment sale price index as a proxy for the housing price, and the apartment trading volume index as a proxy for the housing trading volume, we set up the panel data of 23 autonomous districts in Seoul form Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2014. In results from the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel model, we found that the internet searching activity had an positive(+) effect on the housing price and trading volume with some time lags. From the results of IRFs and FEVDs derived from the panel VAR model analysis, we also found that the internet searching activity had the strongest effect on housing market at the first order lag and influences much more on the housing price rather than the trading volume. In addition, panel Granger causality test results showed that the internet searching activity and the housing price, the housing price and trading volume had mutual cyclic causalities each other.

KEYWORDS

internet searching activity, housing price and trading volume, arellano-bond dynamic panel model, panel VAR model, panel granger causality test

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

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[web] / 네이버 트렌드 / http://trend.naver.com

[web] / BizSpring Inc / http://www.internettrend.co.kr

[web] / Google 트렌드 / http://www.google.co.kr/trends/

[web] / Google Flu Trends / http://www.google.org/flutrends/

This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.

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