Korea Real Estate Review 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.56
-
pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
- https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer
KJCKorea
Journal Central
A Dynamic Relationship Between Internet Search Activity, Housing Price, and Trading Volume
- Korea Real Estate Review
- 2014, 24(2), pp.125-140
- Publisher : korea real estate research institute
- Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate
김대원 1, Jung-Suk Yu 2
1단국대학교 일반대학원 도시계획및부동산학과 박사과정
2단국대학교
Accredited
ABSTRACT
In the housing market, the internet searching activity trail means collective thinking and represents purchase intent. Therefore, if we can capture the meaningful relationship between the internet searching activity, the housing price, and the housing trading volume, it would mean we can predict the future using the internet searching activity data as a index for the housing market. In this context, we conducted the empirical research to examine the dynamic relationship between the internet searching activity and the housing price and trading volume.
Using the “NAVER Trend" data as a proxy for the internet searching activity, the apartment sale price index as a proxy for the housing price, and the apartment trading volume index as a proxy for the housing trading volume, we set up the panel data of 23 autonomous districts in Seoul form Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2014.
In results from the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel model, we found that the internet searching activity had an positive(+) effect on the housing price and trading volume with some time lags. From the results of IRFs and FEVDs derived from the panel VAR model analysis, we also found that the internet searching activity had the strongest effect on housing market at the first order lag and influences much more on the housing price rather than the trading volume. In addition, panel Granger causality test results showed that the internet searching activity and the housing price, the housing price and trading volume had mutual cyclic causalities each other.
Statistics
-
535 Viewed
-
168 Downloaded
Tools
Issue List
Citation status
* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.
[journal]
김대원
/ 2014
/
The Development of Housing Unsold Ratio Determinants Model and Applications
/ 주택연구
/ 한국주택학회
22(1)
: 151~180
[journal]
김대원
/ 2013
/
An Analysis on How Psychological Attitudes on the House Price Affect the Trading Volume
/ 주택연구
/ 한국주택학회
21(2)
: 73~92
[journal]
김대원
/ 2013
/
How Selling-Buying Time Preference Affects on Forming the Relationship between Housing Price and Trading Volume
/ 부동산학보
/ 한국부동산학회
(54)
: 229~243
[journal]
김수도
/ 2012
/
Prediction Model for Popularity of Online Articles based on Analysis of Hit Count
/ 한국콘텐츠학회 논문지
/ 한국콘텐츠학회
12(4)
: 40~51
[confproc]
박정은
/ 2009
/ 검색어를 통한유행성 독감 감지 및 예측 시스템
/ 한국인터넷정보학회추계 학술대회
/ 한국인터넷정보학회
20
: 205~210
[journal]
이수욱
/ 2008
/ 논단: 수요자 중심의 부동산시장 기반조성
/ 건설경제
/ 국토연구원
55
: 59~68
[journal]
정의철
/ 2010
/
Consumer Sentiment and Housing Market Activities: Impact on Sales Price of Housing
/ 부동산학연구
/ 한국부동산분석학회
16(3)
: 5~20
[journal]
최영걸
/ 2004
/
Relationship Between the Present Price and Expectations on Future Capital Gains in the Housing Market
/ 국토계획
/ 대한국토·도시계획학회
39(2)
: 131~141
[journal]
한송이
/ 2012
/
Real-Time Purchase Probability Prediction Using Clickstream Data of Internet Storefronts
/ Entrue Journal of Information Technology
/ 엘지씨엔에스
11(1)
: 101~110
[journal]
Arellano, Manuel
/ 1991
/ Some Tests of Specification for panel data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment equations
/ The Review of Economic Studies
/ Oxford University Press
58(2)
: 277~297
[journal]
Arellano, Manuel
/ 1995
/ Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Errorcomponents Models
/ Journal of Econometrics
/ Elsevier
68(1)
: 29~51
[journal]
Baryla, Edward A.
/ 2000
/ An Investigation of Buyer Search in the Residential Real Estate Market under Different Market Conditions
/ Journal of Real Estate Research
/ American Real Estate Society
20(1)
: 75~91
[journal]
Beracha, Eli
/ 2013
/ Forecasting Residential Real Estate Price Changes from Online Search Activity
/ Journal of Real Estate Research
/ American Real Estate Society
35(3)
: 283~312
[journal]
Brownstein, John S.
/ 2009
/ Digital Disease Detection—Harnessing the Web for Public Health Surveillance
/ New England Journal of Medicine
/ Massachusetts Medical Society
360(21)
: 2153~2157
[journal]
Choi, Hyunyoung
/ 2012
/ Predicting the Present with Google Trends
/ Economic Record
/ Wiley
88(s1)
: 2~9
[journal]
Choi, In
/ 2001
/ Unit Root Tests for Panel Data
/ Journal of International Money and Finance
/ Elsevier
20(2)
: 249~272
[report]
Corley, Courtney
/ 2009
/ Monitoring Influenza Trends through Mining Social Media
/ BIOCOMP, BIOCOMP
: 340~346
[journal]
Cumby, Robert E.
/ 1992
/ Testing the Autocorrelation Structure of Disturbances in Ordinary Least Squares and Instrumental Variables Regressions
/ Econometrica
/ Wiley
60(1)
: 185~195
[journal]
Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona
/ 2012
/ Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels
/ Economic Modelling
/ Elsevier
29(4)
: 1450~1460
[journal]
Ettredge, Michael
/ 2005
/ Using Web-based Search Data to Predict Macroeconomic Statistics
/ Communications of the ACM
/ Association for Computing Machinery
48(11)
: 87~92
[journal]
Fort, Teresa C.
/ 2013
/ How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size
/ IMF Economic Review
/ Palgrave Macmillan
61(3)
: 520~559
[journal]
Ginsberg, Jeremy
/ 2009
/ Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data
/ Nature
/ Nature Publishing Group
457(7232)
: 1012~1014
[confproc]
Goel, Sharad
/ 2010
/ Predicting Consumer Behavior with Web Search
/ Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
/ Stanford University's High Wire Press
107(41)
: 17486~17490
[journal]
Hadri, Kaddour
/ 2000
/ Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data
/ The Econometrics Journal
/ Wiley
3(2)
: 148~161
[journal]
Hulth, Anette
/ 2009
/ Web Queries as a Source for Syndromic Surveillance
/ PloS one
/ PLOS
4(2)
: e4378~
[journal]
Im, Kyung So
/ 2003
/ Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels
/ Journal of Econometrics
/ Elsevier
115(1)
: 53~74
[journal]
Juster, F. Thomas
/ 1966
/ Consumer Buying Intentions and Purchase Probability: An Experiment in Survey Design
/ Journal of the American Statistical Association
/ Taylor & Francis
61(315)
: 658~696
[journal]
Levin, Andrew
/ 2002
/ Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-sample Properties
/ Journal of Econometrics
/ Elsevier
108(1)
: 1~24
[journal]
Love, Inessa
/ 2006
/ Financial Development and Dynamic Investment Behavior: Evidence from Panel VAR
/ The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance
/ Elsevier
46(2)
: 190~210
[journal]
Maddala, Gangadharrao S.
/ 1999
/ A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test
/ Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics
/ Wiley
61(S1)
: 631~652
[journal]
Morrison, Donald G.
/ 1979
/ Purchase Intentions and Purchase Behavior
/ The Journal of Marketing
/ American Marketing Association
: 65~74
[journal]
Morwitz, Vicki G.
/ 2007
/ When Do Purchase Intentions Predict Sales?
/ International Journal of Forecasting
/ Elsevier
23(3)
: 347~364
[journal]
Pelat, Camille
/ 2009
/ More Diseases Tracked by Using Google Trends
/ Emerging Infectious Diseases
/ CDC
15(8)
: 1327~
[journal]
Polgreen, Philip M.
/ 2008
/ Using Internet Searches for Influenza Surveillance
/ Clinical Infectious Diseases
/ Oxford Journals
47(11)
: 1443~1448
[journal]
Preis, Tobias
/ 1933
/ Complex Dynamics of Our Economic Life on Different Scales: Insights from Search Engine Query Data
/ Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
/ Royahl Society Publishing
368(1933)
: 5707~5719
[confproc]
Radinsky, Kira
/ 2008
/ Predicting the News of Tomorrow Using Patterns in Web Search Queries
/ Proceedings of the 2008 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology
1
: 363~367
[journal]
Rangaswamy, Arvind
/ 2009
/ A Strategic Perspective on Search Engines: Thought Candies for Practitioners and Researchers
/ Journal of Interactive Marketing
/ Elsevier
23(1)
: 49~60
[report]
Suhoy, Tanya
/ 2009
/ Query Indices and a 2008 Downturn: Israeli Data
/ Bank of Israel
: 1~32
[journal]
Valdivia, Antonio
/ 2010
/ Diseases Tracked by Using Google Trends, Spain
/ Emerging Infectious Diseases
/ CDC
16(1)
: 168~
[journal]
Vosen, Simeon
/ 2011
/ Forecasting Private Consumption: Survey‐based Indicators vs. Google Trends
/ Journal of Forecasting
/ Wiley
30(6)
: 565~578
[book]
Wu, Lynn
/ 2013
/ The Future of Prediction: How Google Searches Foreshadow Housing Prices and Sales
/ Economics of Digitization
[web]
/ 네이버 트렌드
/ http://trend.naver.com
[web]
/ BizSpring Inc
/ http://www.internettrend.co.kr
[web]
/ Google 트렌드
/ http://www.google.co.kr/trends/
[web]
/ Google Flu Trends
/ http://www.google.org/flutrends/
This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.