@article{ART001604330},
author={CHUNG, CHEOL HO and Nam, Dae-yub},
title={An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China},
journal={JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES},
issn={1229-3806},
year={2011},
number={34},
pages={233-264},
doi={10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011}
TY - JOUR
AU - CHUNG, CHEOL HO
AU - Nam, Dae-yub
TI - An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China
JO - JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES
PY - 2011
VL - null
IS - 34
PB - CHINESE STUDIES INSTITUTE
SP - 233
EP - 264
SN - 1229-3806
AB - 中国从2003年以後由国际短期投機资本的流出国变成流入国。对中国这种自身资本比较稀缺的国家来说, 短期投機资本可以提供一定资本。可是, 一旦中国在宏观经济上发出不良的信號, 进来的短期资本会很快撤出,而威胁到中国的经济发展。所以本文研究中国的国际短期投机资本, 主要致力于对短期國際投機资本流入中国影响因素进行实证分析。本文先检验了基本统计量與單位根後采用了两个模型进行实证分析。第一模型是可以说明变量之间的长期和短期影响的ECM模型。其结果从长期均衡方程式看出, 人民币升值预测是对国际短期投機资本最有影响力的动因。而且其影响力在汇率改革之後大大增加了。第二模型是可以检验某个变动的影响因素、进行短期预测, 也可以分析政策变量的波及效应的VAR模型。其结果首先看全期间衝擊函数的结果, 初期人民币升值预测、国际利差和股价收益率变量显示为正, 其中股价的影响力在第一月最为显著, 虽然此后它显示出逐渐降低的趋势, 不过其影响力能长期保持。分散分解分析的结果也大致上跟ECM模型與衝擊反应函数的结果一致。
KW -
DO - 10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
ER -
CHUNG, CHEOL HO and Nam, Dae-yub. (2011). An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China. JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES, 34, 233-264.
CHUNG, CHEOL HO and Nam, Dae-yub. 2011, "An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China", JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES, no.34, pp.233-264. Available from: doi:10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
CHUNG, CHEOL HO, Nam, Dae-yub "An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China" JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES 34 pp.233-264 (2011) : 233.
CHUNG, CHEOL HO, Nam, Dae-yub. An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China. 2011; 34 : 233-264. Available from: doi:10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
CHUNG, CHEOL HO and Nam, Dae-yub. "An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China" JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES no.34(2011) : 233-264.doi: 10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
CHUNG, CHEOL HO; Nam, Dae-yub. An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China. JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES, 34, 233-264. doi: 10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
CHUNG, CHEOL HO; Nam, Dae-yub. An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China. JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES. 2011; 34 233-264. doi: 10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
CHUNG, CHEOL HO, Nam, Dae-yub. An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China. 2011; 34 : 233-264. Available from: doi:10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
CHUNG, CHEOL HO and Nam, Dae-yub. "An Analysis of Hot Money inflow into China" JOURNAL OF CHINESE STUDIES no.34(2011) : 233-264.doi: 10.26585/chlab.2011..34.011
