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A study on Securing the Appropriateness of Population Estimation in the Urban Master Planning

  • Public Land Law Review
  • Abbr : KPLLR
  • 2021, 96(), pp.75-102
  • Publisher : Korean Public Land Law Association
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law
  • Received : October 31, 2021
  • Accepted : November 22, 2021
  • Published : November 25, 2021

Cho, Jin-Woo 1

1도로교통연구원 책임연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

In the process of high economic growth in Korea, the population increased with a high fertility rate, and people flocked to cities. As many problems occurred due to the rapidly increasing population of cities, the Urban Planning Act solved these problems by preparing the urban master plan and urban management plan. In a time when the population is declining due to the low birth rate and aging population, a fundamental change is inevitable in the urban master plan stipulated on the premise that the existing population is increasing. However, although local annihilation is becoming a reality due to population decline, local governments are establishing basic urban plans on the premise that the population will increase as in the past. In the urban master plan established by local governments, overestimating the future population, the gap with the reality of declining population is gradually increasing. The urban master plan presents an image of the future of the city, and an increase in the population gap, which is the basis of the plan, leads to indiscriminate development of the region and waste of finances, leading to the decline of the city. In order for the urban master plan to perform its original function by bridging the population gap between the plan and reality, local governments should be able to utilize more diverse population indicators to establish the urban master plan and to establish more flexible plans. do. In addition, more specific control measures are required for population growth caused by social factors in the planned population estimation. Recognizing that population movement in the era of population decline is a zero-sum game for local governments, measures that enable neighboring local governments to interconnect the urban master plan should also be considered. Above all, it is also necessary to strengthen the capacity of local governments to establish urban master plans and to provide a basis for easily sharing data for rational establishment of urban master plans between the state and local governments. In the era of population decline, if local governments overestimate the population according to the urban master plan as in the past, the current difficulties will be accelerated. It should be possible to establish a basic urban plan suitable for its original function by inducing population estimation through more diverse methods and controlling excessive population estimation.

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