@article{ART003388344},
author={Song, Seongjong},
title={The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory},
journal={military history},
issn={1598-317X},
year={2026},
number={140},
pages={513-558}
TY - JOUR
AU - Song, Seongjong
TI - The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory
JO - military history
PY - 2026
VL - null
IS - 140
PB - Military History Institute, MND
SP - 513
EP - 558
SN - 1598-317X
AB - This study traces, through a diachronic synthesis of strategic intellectual history and military history, how successive innovations in military technology since the advent of modernity have repeatedly magnified optimism about “decisive victory” and regenerated the myth of the short, decisive war. The concept of the decisive battle, which took shape in the age of Napoleon and Clausewitz, has been revived with each new technological breakthrough —from railways, tanks, and air power to precision-guided munitions, network-centric warfare, and artificial intelligence (AI)—rekindling expectations that wars can be brought to a swift and conclusive end. Yet, as the Marne, Operation Barbarossa, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the war with Iran have demonstrated, actual wars have repeatedly followed a trajectory of protraction amid friction, the enemy’s independent will, and nonlinear unpredictability. The central argument of this article is that military and operational success does not automatically translate into strategic and political victory. By integrating Clausewitz’s classical insights with contemporary scholarship on the nonlinear character of war, the study explains why the dream of decisive victory remains structurally prone to frustration even in the age of AI. It also examines counterexamples in which short, decisive wars were exceptionally realized in order to establish the conditions under which the argument holds and to delimit its scope of application. Finally, it briefly considers the implications of these findings for South Korea’s national security.
KW - short-war illusion; decisive victory; Clausewitz; friction; artificial intelligence; revolution in military affairs
DO -
UR -
ER -
Song, Seongjong. (2026). The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory. military history, 140, 513-558.
Song, Seongjong. 2026, "The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory", military history, no.140, pp.513-558.
Song, Seongjong "The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory" military history 140 pp.513-558 (2026) : 513.
Song, Seongjong. The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory. 2026; 140 : 513-558.
Song, Seongjong. "The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory" military history no.140(2026) : 513-558.
Song, Seongjong. The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory. military history, 140, 513-558.
Song, Seongjong. The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory. military history. 2026; 140 513-558.
Song, Seongjong. The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory. 2026; 140 : 513-558.
Song, Seongjong. "The Evolution and Setbacks of the Short-War Doctrine - From Railroads to AI, the Dream of Decisive Victory" military history no.140(2026) : 513-558.
