2014, Vol.21, No.3

Journal of Asia-Pacific Studies 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.61

pISSN : 1225-8539 / eISSN : 2671-5171
https://journal.kci.go.kr/japs

The purpose of this research is to identify the controversy surrounding the CSSTA(Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement) in terms of recent changes of social conflict structure in Taiwan. This paper argues that the problems of social class and generation effect make the social conflict more complicated unlike previous studies which focused on ethnic tension or Independence debate in Taiwan. Especially, we tried to take note of the potential division in Democratic Progressive Party(DPP) due to class distinction. This is based on the native Taiwanese entrepreneurs who are the supporters of CSSTA in contrast with the position of DPP. We also pointed out that the ‘Sunflower Student Movement’ has caused by generation problem, noting the unemployment rate among youth people between 20-24 has further increased differently from the other age groups since ECFA(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) signed in 2010. This study expects that the concept of ethnic, class interests and generation gap will make the social conflict more complex in Taiwan hereafter.

This paper analyzes the role of public opinion on the Internet in China's foreign policy making decisions with regards to the third North Korean nuclear test. According to this analysis, the Internet as a forum for public opinions has emerged as an important variable that cannot be ignored in foreign policy decision-making. This is because the internet is an important virtual space that not only allows for the formation of public opinion with regards to China's foreign policies but also discusses the direction of these foreign policies. However, rather than exerting a decisive influence on foreign policy in relation to important security-diplomacy issues, the Internet public opinion appears to be utilized as a resource that can exert diplomatic pressure onto China's counterparts even if national governments consult with each other directly. This means that public opinion on the Internet operates as a passive tool that is utilized by the government, although it is starting to play a more important role in foreign policy-making related to diplomatic and security issues.

This paper tries to empirically investigate whether the information contained in business confidence may be statistically useful in explaining stock return regimes and regime switches in Asian markets. This paper uses the Time-Varying Transition Probabilities Markov regime switching model with business confidence as the mediator of regime switches. Using the Business Confidence Indicator(BCI) and stock returns of five major Asian markets such as Korea, China, Japan, Indonesia and India, from January 2003 to August 2013, this study finds that the BCI has an effect on the regime transition probabilities of the bull markets.