2022, Vol.32, No.2

Korea Real Estate Review 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.56

pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer

Land use restrictions under the Special Act on Public Housing severely limit private property rights. Under the Special Act on Public Housing, land use restrictions are being imposed by designating public housing districts, designating special management areas, and re-designating public housing districts. In particular, after the special management area is lifted, re-designating the land as a public housing district cannot be permitted without any legal basis. Permitting this re-designation is a serious violation of the property rights of landowners and others in the public housing district and violates the rule of law. In addition, designating a public housing district again after the cancellation of the special management area effectively deprives or severely limits the private property rights of the land owner and others. Even if the re-designation of public housing districts is viewed as a regulation of property rights or social binding of property rights, it significantly infringes the property rights of landowners in the public housing district and violates the principle of proportionality. The requirements for the designation of a special management area as an “area of concern for poor development” should be specifically and clearly defined. If other land use restrictions under the Special Act on Public Housing infringe property rights, reasonable compensation provisions, including the right to claim purchases, should be prepared.

Using aggregate data, this study developed a composite index for the housing market and applied it to the analysis of the housing market’s cycle and crisis stages. A total of 40 variables were used to create the index, including 24 variables from Korea's Real Estate Market Early Warning System (EWS). After converting each individual variable into a level or rate of change in consideration of each characteristic, we controlled for seasonal and irregular factors using the X-12 method and standardized using mean and standard deviation. Subsequently, the first and second factors were extracted using principal component analysis, and the composite index was calculated by applying the eigenvalue for each factor to the component score as a weight. Results reveal that the first factor that preceded the housing market and a strong tendency to show the financial market’s situation, such as liquidity and interest rates, and the land market. The second factor was closely related to the lease market and was accompanied by housing prices and housing transactions. Finally, the index calculated in this study was used to analyze the national housing market's cyclical phase and crisis stages. Hence, when compared to the case of using a single variable such as housing prices and housing transactions, the index of this study had the advantage of clearly identifying the cycle and crisis stages. The housing market composite index created in this study using many variables can be a useful tool for monitoring the housing market by supplementing the existing EWS.

The housing market is difficult to predict due to the complexities of macroeconomic conditions, government policy interventions, and ever-changing supply and demand. Furthermore, the structure of a household's housing consumption decision-making can cause structural changes over time. When a market undergoes structural change, government policies based on model coefficients estimated from historical data can be misleading. In particular, permanent income is a major variable in the analysis of housing demand. However, if using current income causes an estimation bias for other variables, the model's stability cannot be guaranteed. This study explores the stability of consumer preference using the primary variables of the housing tenure choice function, such as income, housing cost, housing price volatility, and unit size. The analysis confirms that the household preference system for income, housing costs, and housing price volatility conditions was generally stable in housing consumption from 2002 to 2019. However, there was a significant change in the 2020 housing tenure choice model. The change was statistically significant. Furthermore, the estimation bias model analysis shows that using the current income variable as a proxy for the permanent income variable did not result in any significant estimation bias for other independent variables.