2024, Vol.34, No.2

Korea Real Estate Review 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.56

pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer

This study empirically analyzes the characteristics and determinants of partial prepayment. Using data from the KHF, this study divides the prepayment of fixed-rate mortgage loans into partial and full payments. The analysis results are summarized as follows. First, the partial payment scale indicated 25.4% of the full payment, as determined by the specific amount. Second, partial prepayment did not affect maturity. Third, in the case of partial prepayment, the distinction lies in whether there was an application, rather than the level of the application rate. Fourth, partial prepayment exhibited lower susceptibility to market fluctuations. Fifth, making a partial prepayment affected the credit rating, borrower’s age, loan-to-value ratio (LTV), and a dummy variable representing the month. Moreover, estimating partial prepayment is easy owing to the considerable impact of the variables influencing origination and the small influence of market variables. The analysis reveals that partial prepayment has a relatively small LTV and a small DTI, increases with high credit ratings, and has minimal impact on changes in the housing market or the elapsed period. To effectively control household debt, the characteristics of partial prepayment can be utilized, such as charging early repayment fees, determining the repayment mechanism following partial prepayment, and providing policy support. This study focused on the partial prepayment of mortgage loans, an area that had not been previously researched. The findings of the full prepayment analysis were consistent with those of earlier studies; however, the analysis revealed contrasting results for partial prepayment.

This study focused on the steadily increasing proportion of corporate transactions in the total apartment transaction volume. It also investigated the correlation between this proportion and apartment prices. The analysis confirmed a positive relationship between the corporation's share in apartment transaction volume and the apartment sales index. In particular, the direction of this relationship varied depending on the corporation's market participation status. When a corporation participated as a seller (buyer), it positively (negatively) correlated with the apartment sales index. This study has implications for achieving the policy goal of curbing speculative demand from corporations. However, the system must be restructured to incentivize corporations to actively engage in real estate transactions as sellers to ensure price stability in the real estate market.

This study analyzes the dynamic effects of macroeconomic variables on successful bid prices for the appraised value (PTV) of national property. The analysis uses the following macroeconomic variables: interest rates (COFIX), money supply (M2), stock index (KOSPI), consumer price index (CPI), and economic sentiment index (ESI). Monthly data of 151 months from January 2011 to July 2023 are used. The VEC model is fitted to capture the dynamic effects of macroeconomic variables on PTV. The analysis yielded the following results. First, when estimating the long-term relationship between variables and successful bid prices, we find that M2 and ESI have positive effects on PTV, whereas COFIX, KOSPI, and CPI have negative effects. Second, in the impulse response analysis, PTV exhibits positive responses to shocks in M2 and ESI but negative responses to shocks in COFIX, KOSPI, and CPI. Third, the forecast error variance decomposition analysis reveals that 24 months after the exogenous shocks affect the variables, the forecast error variance of PTV can be explained by shocks to KOSPI, M2, CPI, and COFIX, accounting for 17.1%, 8.4%, 7.2%, and 6%, respectively. ESI has minimal explanation power.