2025, Vol.35, No.1

Korea Real Estate Review 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.56

pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer

This study used a two-stage approach because grandchild care can only be performed after childbirth. The first stage of the analysis analyzed the association between the possibility of real grandchild care and proximity, meeting frequency, and interaction terms using data from KLoSA from 2012 to 2020. The second stage analyzed the effect of proximity approximating grandchild care support expectationson the possibility of the daughter’s first birth transition using data from KLoWA between2012 and 2020. The results of the first stage revealed that intergenerational proximity was closely related to the provision of grandchild care. Meanwhile, the results of the second stage indicate that the possibility of transition to first birth increases for women in their 20s and 30s compared with those in their 40s, for women in comfortable economic situations compared with those in difficult economic situations, for women who live in jeonse compared with those who rent, when tenure status improves, and when intergenerational proximity is high or increasing. Conversely, the possibility of transitioning to first birth decreases for those living in homes smaller than 60㎡ compared with those in homes larger than 85㎡. Therefore, policy considerations are needed for adequate housing areas and housing stabilization. In addition, the relative residential position of the family plays an important role in supporting grandchild care and the decision to give birth.

We examined the relationship between political ideology and housing prices by analyzing housing price patterns based on the ruling government’s political ideology. Using data from 3434 samples across 17 cities, including Seoul, from January 2008 to December 2024, we analyzed housing prices alongside variables such as the political ideology of the central and local governments, interest rates, and housing permits. Results showed that progressive central and local governments are positively and negatively related to housing prices, respectively. Additionally, when the political ideologies of these governments are consistent, housing prices show a negative relationship. Therefore, political ideology affects housing prices, and when the central and local governments share the same ideological stance, housing prices tend to decrease. This finding can be interpreted as a result of policy alignment between the two levels of government, which contributes to housing price stability. Unlike previous policy studies, this study examined the relationship between policymakers’ political ideology and housing prices. It revealed that housing price stability improves when the central and local governments share the same ideology. Therefore, policy coherence between the two levels of government is necessary.

This study empirically analyzes the long-memory and regime-switching characteristics of apartment price indices in eight cities of South Korea (Seoul, Busan, Daegu, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan, Gyeonggi, and Incheon). An R/S test and MS-ARFIMA model were applied for the period from June 2003 to September 2024. Results of the R/S test revealed long-memory characteristics in apartment price indices across all the cities. Thus, we conducted additional analysis using the MS-ARFIMA model to capture long-memory and regime-switching characteristics simultaneously. The MS-ARFIMA model analysis confirmed both characteristics in all regions, with particularly strong long-memory characteristics observed in the contraction phase. Metropolitan areas demonstrate complex characteristics, with high volatility and strong long memory. Additionally, all cities show asymmetric characteristics where the contraction phase showed a higher persistence probability than the expansion phase. In contrast, nonmetropolitan areas demonstrated strong persistence during the contraction phases but relatively weak state persistence during the expansion phases. Therefore, preemptive policy responses when entering a housing market downturn, identification of appropriate intervention timing, and the implementation of sophisticated region-specific policy approaches are necessary.