2026, Vol.36, No.1

Korea Real Estate Review 2024 KCI Impact Factor : 0.38

pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer

This study empirically examines the determinants of household real estate investment decision using data from the 2024 Survey of Household Finances and Living Conditions conducted by Statistics Korea. Unlike previous studies focusing on the determinants of real estate ownership or asset ratios, this study assumes that investment and ownership decisions in real estate are interconnected . To address this relationship, a bivariate probit model is employed. The estimation results show a correlation coefficient of −0.203 between the error terms of the two decision equations, which is statistically significant at the 1% level. This suggests that unobserved factors influence real estate investment and ownership decisions in opposite ways. The results of the marginal effect estimation show that households located in the Seoul Metropolitan Area have about a 5.6% greater likelihood of investing in real estate. In contrast, owner-occupied households have an approximately 8.1% lower probability of investing compared with renter households. Notably, a rise in income boosts the likelihood of owning real estate by about 10%, and households with married couples have about a 13% higher likelihood of owning a house than single-adult households. While real estate investment and ownership decisions are distinct, they are linked through unobserved factors.

This study analyzes apartment sale and jeonse prices in Seoul to identify how government policies shape price levels and dynamics. Theory shows that tighter LTV ratios shifted middle- and lower-income households from homeownership to the jeonse market, worsening inequality. VAR evidence indicates that interventions affected sale prices first and jeonse prices later, with the two pulling each other upward asymmetrically. Most price increases from 2003 to 2022 -- excluding pandemic effects -- are attributable to progressive real estate policies. Among domestic variables, only household debt was significant, transmitting and amplifying external shocks. Standard economic criteria indicate severe chronic undersupply in Seoul driven by excessive planning constraints, producing a dual structure in which a high base price combines with policy-driven cycles. Consequently, real estate policies based on the premise that housing supply is sufficient possess a false logical structure; consequently, speculation is a logical corollary of supply shortages. The current government's primary real estate measures contradict the policy implications of this paper.

This study empirically examines the impact of pedestrian accessibility to lake parks on apartment transaction prices in four major new towns (Gwanggyo, Dongtan, Unjeong, and Cheongna) in the Seoul metropolitan area. Using 1,180 actual transaction records aggregated into 80 apartment complexes, a hedonic price model or ordinary least squares (OLS) was initially estimated. Moran's Index test was then conducted to assess spatial autocorrelation in the residuals. The results indicated significant spatial clustering only in Gwanggyo, characterized by its high-density linear urban structure, leading to the application of the spatial error model (SEM). Conversely, the OLS model was found to be statistically appropriate for the other three cities. The findings confirm that apartment prices significantly decline as walking distance to lake parks increases, indicating that walking access to parks is capitalized into housing prices in the form of price premium. In Gwanggyo, the application of the SEM significantly improved model performance, as indicated by lower Akaike Information Criterion values, implying that proximity to lake parks and subway stations, as well as apartment age (newer buildings), acts as key determinants of housing prices. This study highlights that the spillover effects of park-related premiums and the suitability of analytical models can vary depending on urban spatial structure, suggesting that a balanced distribution and improved accessibility of green infrastructure are essential for future urban planning.