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Determinants of Apartment Sale and Jeonse Prices in Seoul : The Roles of Speculation, Real Estate Policies, and Planning Regulation

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2026, 36(1), pp.29~50
  • DOI : 10.35136/krer.36.1.2
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate
  • Received : September 18, 2025
  • Accepted : March 16, 2026
  • Published : March 31, 2026

Yu, Sanggyun ORD ID 1,  Rhee, Hyok-Joo 2

1대진대학교
2서울과학기술대학교

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ABSTRACT

This study analyzes apartment sale and jeonse prices in Seoul to identify how government policies shape price levels and dynamics. Theory shows that tighter LTV ratios shifted middle- and lower-income households from homeownership to the jeonse market, worsening inequality. VAR evidence indicates that interventions affected sale prices first and jeonse prices later, with the two pulling each other upward asymmetrically. Most price increases from 2003 to 2022 -- excluding pandemic effects -- are attributable to progressive real estate policies. Among domestic variables, only household debt was significant, transmitting and amplifying external shocks. Standard economic criteria indicate severe chronic undersupply in Seoul driven by excessive planning constraints, producing a dual structure in which a high base price combines with policy-driven cycles. Consequently, real estate policies based on the premise that housing supply is sufficient possess a false logical structure; consequently, speculation is a logical corollary of supply shortages. The current government's primary real estate measures contradict the policy implications of this paper.

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