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An Empirical Study on the Correlation between the Housing Sales Market and Auction Market -Focused on Before and After the Global Financial Crisis-

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2013, 23(2), pp.117-132
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate

Chun Haejung 1

1중앙대학교 도시계획 부동산학과

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The present empirical study is intended to investigate the dynamic correlations between before and after the global financial crisis for the monthly data of apartment sale price index, number of action houses and successful bid price ratio in Seoul during July 2002 to March 2013. According to the cointegration test results, there was the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables in period 1 and period 2. A long-run equilibrium equation shows that the successful bid price ratio of Seoul apartments has negative (-) value for period 1, but positive (+) value for period 2, against the number of action houses. According to the impulse response analysis, for unit impact of the sales price of Seoul apartments, the successful bid price ratio shows a continuous positive (+) reaction for period 1; while it shows positive (+) reaction initially, followed by negative (-) reaction, and eventually converges to zero(0) in period 2. For the unit impact of the number of auction apartments of Seoul, the successful bid price ratio shows a continuous negative (-) reaction for period 1, while continuous positive (+) reaction for period 2. To summarize the empirical analysis results, there is a change in housing auction market as well as general housing sales market before and after the global financial crisis; the signs of the results matched between from the long-run equilibrium equation and from the impulse response.

Citation status

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