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A Study on the APT Price Fluctuation by the Rate of Economic Growth

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2013, 23(2), pp.133-152
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate

이수용 1 Tae-Ug Rho 1

1강남대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This research is the empirical study on price fluctuation in housing market, using time series data of the rate of economic growth and transaction based APT index from the 1Q 1986 to the 4Q 2012. The Vector Error Correction Model can be used, since the long-run equilibrium relation is verified by the result from the trace test of co-integration between the rate of economic growth and APT price of the six metropolitan cities including Seoul. Consecutive verifications of Exogeneity, Impulse response function and Analysis of variance confirm that the rate of economic growth is the long-term pioneer variable of APT price in sequence. And through the Error Analysis of variance, we can see that the gradual rising in importance of economic growth rate in regional APT market as time goes by. The APT price in Seoul impacts more in Daegu, Daejeon than in its region itself and less in Pusan, Ulsan. And it is insignificant level in Gwangju. In brief, the APT price tend to follow the economic growth rate in economical point of view without the concern of regional characteristics and indigenous individuality. Especially the APT price in Seoul exercise a far-reaching influence on other regional APT price. It can be a useful information for the participant in real estate market and also meaningful guidance for government’s real estate policy.

Citation status

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