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A Study of the Effect of Transactions Involving Out-of-Town Buyers on Apartment Prices

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2020, 30(4), pp.33-44
  • DOI : 10.35136/krer.30.4.3
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate
  • Received : October 29, 2020
  • Accepted : December 18, 2020
  • Published : December 31, 2020

Hwang, Gwan Seok 1

1국토연구원

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the impact of the transactions involving out-of-town buyers on apartment prices in the Seoul metropolitan region using the data over the period from the first quarter of 2009 till the fourth quarter of 2019. The result of correlation analysis reveals a strong positive correlation between the share of transactions attributable to out-of-town buyers and the rate of appreciation of apartment prices. The result of a Granger causality test suggests that causality runs from the appreciation of prices to an increase of transactions, and to an increase in the transactions involving out-of-town buyers. From a time-series regression model including an AR(1) term, the share of transactions attributable to out-of-town buyers was found to have a significant positive effect on price appreciation and a larger explanatory power. The effect of the variable remains valid in a model that includes the building completions and corporate bond yields designed to control for the housing market conditions and the macroeconomic environment, respectively. Our findings suggest that purchases by out-of-town buyers driven by investment demand need to be contained to reduce volatility of housing price in the Seoul metropolitan region.

Citation status

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