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Time-varying and Nonlinear Nature of Causality Between Cryptocurrency, Real Estate, and Stock Markets in South Korea

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2025, 35(3), pp.7~28
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate
  • Received : June 29, 2025
  • Accepted : September 19, 2025
  • Published : September 30, 2025

Yu, Jung Suk 1

1단국대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study examines the time-varying and nonlinear causal relationships among cryptoassets, real estate, and stock markets in Korea, with particular focus on the Gangnam 3 district. The cryptocurrency indicator was expanded to include the market capitalization of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins (TOTAL2). Using time-varying parametric vector autoregression, Markov-switching, and nonlinear Granger causality econometric models, we investigate how asset market linkages evolve through phase transitions and structural shifts. The results show, that the causal relationship between virtual assets and Gangnam 3 real estate, overlooked in linear models, becomes statistically significant in nonlinear models under conditions of high volatility or sharp price changes, with direction and strength shifting over time. Additionally, asset market linkages adjusted in response to external shocks (e.g., interest rate changes, economic cycles, and global financial events). Furthermore, the Gangnam 3 real estate market displayed stronger interactions with crypto and stock markets than other regions of Seoul and the country, and responded differently to external shocks.

Citation status

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