2016, Vol.26, No.4

Korea Real Estate Review 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 0.56

pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer

This study aims at examining practical issues through the analysis into the actual conditions of compensation by project operators with regard to the present business loss compensation period, the adjudication cases of the Central Land Tribunal and others, and at suggesting future tasks. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, Korea is now strictly regulating the requirements of compensation in discontinuance of business, yet in the future, subdivided standards in connection with the types of business must be established, and on the other hand, flexible management of the actual period of suspension of business can be another measure. Second, the objective standards to decide on the compensation of an actual period of suspension of business need to be improved through the investigation into the actual condition, judgment by professionals and etc., and as for the meaning of actual period of suspension of business, the legal system should be improved. In addition, in case of the business types whose place can be moved and that can resume their normal activities in a relatively short term, the period of suspension of business within 4 months needs to be applied. Third, in order to decide on the discontinuance of business and the period of suspension of business, project operators need to consult professionals.

This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate consumption-wealth ratio for predicting housing returns in Korea. This is because, following Lettau and Ludvigson(2001), the consumer’s budget constraint implies that the residuals of the trend relationship among consumption and aggregate wealth should predict housing returns. We use quarterly data (1987.2Q~2012.2Q) and find that fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio in Korea are predictors of real and excess housing returns. In most models, financial and housing assets are found to be seen as complements in the short-run. That is, when Korean household expects future housing returns to be higher, they will temporarily allow consumption to rise. This result is consistent with the result from most OECD countries including Japan.

This paper investigates the time-varying behavior of beta for Korea housing market using monthly housing pricing indices of borough in Seoul and Busan over the period 2003-2014. In this paper, we focus on tests based on Kalman filter. First, in order to know whether betas have varied substantially over time, this paper estimates time-varying betas using the Kalman filter algorithm in the framework of a state-space model. Second, we compare the fitting and forecast ability of two different time-varying beta models(using AR(1) and random walk process) and use the constant beta of the single factor model as a benchmark. Our results find that in time-series test, measures of forecast errors overwhelmingly support the Kalman filter method implying betas are time-varying substantially over time. In comparison of time-varying betas, Betas of AR(1) process are preferred to random walk process in sample fitting performances and betas of random walk process provide more accurate forecast.