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A Methodology for the Estimation of the Quantity of Apartments Ready for Move-In via the Concept of Survival Analysis

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2019, 29(4), pp.69-83
  • DOI : 10.35136/krer.29.4.5
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate
  • Received : October 24, 2019
  • Accepted : December 13, 2019
  • Published : December 31, 2019

Kyu-hyun Ji 1 Kwak Ha Young 2 Chang-Moo Lee ORD ID 2 Han, Je-Sun 2

1한양사이버대학교
2한양대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

Although supply and demand determine the changes in housing prices, housing supply is relatively inelastic relative to the housing demand, which results in the volatility of the housing prices. The increase in the housing price volatility is a factor that impedes the smooth supply of housing to the market through the delay in the timing of the housing developers' investment, which may also cause the housing price to soar. One of the main reasons for this uncertainty in the real estate market is the uncertainty of information about housing supply. In order to stabilize the real estate prices and reduce uncertainty in the future, it is necessary to confirm the information on housing supply to the market. Private real estate information company provides information about the specific amount of moving into the apartment; however, there is no official statistics by the public. Threfore, this study attempts to estimate the long-term residential volume from the approval to the completion of the apartment via the raw data of the Housing Supply System (HIS), which the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport manages and produces. As a result of the decrease in the uncertainty of the housing supply statistics, the statistics on the volume of apartment reduces the housing market uncertainty. This allows the housing suppliers to have control on the housing supply.

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