Comparison of Accuracy among Exponential Smoothing Models: Application of Pegels’ and Gardner’s Smoothing Models (지수평활모형간 정확도 비교: Pegels와 Gardner모형의 적용* )

Keunseok Song (송근석); Lee Choong-Ki (이충기)

Comparison of Accuracy among Exponential Smoothing Models: Application of Pegels’ and Gardner’s Smoothing Models

Journal of Tourism Sciences
Abbr : JTS
2008, 32(4), pp.121-144
Publisher : The Tourism Sciences Society Of Korea
Research Area : Social Science > Tourism

Keunseok Song ¹, Lee Choong-Ki ²

¹백석대학교
²경희대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

The primary purpose of this paper is to compare accuracy of various exponential smoothing models in order to suggest the best forecasting model, together with appling exponential smoothing model proposed by Pegels and Gardner. To this end, quarterly tourist time series data for Japanese and Chinese tourists were used from the period 1992:1-2007:4. Accuracy of forecasts was evaluated by the measures of MAPE and Theil's U statistics. The empirical results show that Pegels' and Gardner's models outperformed other competing smoothing models. In particular, multiplicative trend models for Chinese tourists performed best, while no trend and damped trend models outperformed other models in testing period.

KEYWORDS

Exponential smoothing models, Multiplicative trend models, Damped trend models, Accuracy test

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2023 are currently being built.

[journal] 곽대진 / 2007 / Predicting Outbound Tourism Demands for Korean Senior Citizen: An Application of Artificial Neural Network Model / 관광학연구 / 한국관광학회 31(6) : 157~178

[journal] 김석출 / 1999 / 단변량 시계열모형을 이용한 식음료 수요예측에 관한 연구-서울소재 특1급 H호텔 사례를 중심으로 / Culinary Research 5(1) : 89~101

[journal] 모수원 / 2007 / Can We Predict the Demand for Outbound Tourism in Korea? / 관광학연구 / 한국관광학회 31(3) : 189~208

[journal] 모수원 / 2002 / Forecasting Performances Comparison of Korean Outbound Tourism Demand: Multivariate and Univariate Time Series Models / 관광·레저연구 / 한국관광.레저학회 14(3) : 11~24

[journal] 박흥식 / 2000 / 구조적모형을 통한 방한 외래관광객의 수요예측 / 관광학연구 24(2) : 135~155

[journal] 송근석 / 2007 / A Comparison of Accuracy between Univariate and Econometric Models / 관광학연구 / 한국관광학회 31(4) : 35~53

[journal] 송근석 / 2006 / A Comparison of Accuracy among Tourism Forecasting Models / 관광연구저널 / 한국관광연구학회 20(2) : 351~369

[journal] 송근석 / 2007 / The importance of ex post forecasts in evaluating tourism demand forecasting models / 관광연구 / 대한관광경영학회 22(2) : 95~116

[journal] 유광훈 / 1995 / 방한 외래관광객의 예측:지수평활법의 적용을 중심으로 / 관광학연구 18(2) : 247~259

[journal] 이충기 / 2007 / Selecting Most Appropriate Time Series Forecasting Model / 관광학연구 / 한국관광학회 31(6) : 289~311

[journal] 이충기 / 2005 / The Effect of No Tax System to Tourist Hotel on Inbound Tourism Demand / 호텔경영학연구 / 한국호텔외식경영학회 14(1) : 1~18

[journal] 최영문 / 1998 / 단변량 시계열 관광수요 예측모형의 적정성 비교평가:내국인 해외관광객수 실제치와 예측치의 비교 / 관광학연구 21(2) : 111~128

[book] Box,G.E.P. / 1976 / Time series analysis: forecasting and control(revised edn) / San Francisco:Holden Day.

[book] Brown,R.G. / 1959 / Statistical forecasting for inventory control / McGraw-Hill

[book] Brown,R.G. / 1963 / Smoothing, forecasting and prediction of discrete time series / NJ: Prentice-Hall

[journal] Burger, C. J. S. C. / 2001 / A practitioners guide to time-series methods for tourism demand forecasting - A case study of Durban, South Africa / Tourism Management 22(4) : 403~409

[journal] Chan,Y.-M. / 1999 / Modeling the impact of sudden environmental changes on visitor arrival forecasts: The case of the Gulf War / Journal of Travel Research 37(4) : 391~394

[journal] Cho,V. / 2003 / A comparison of three different approaches to tourist arrival forecasting / Tourism Management 24(3) : 323~330

[journal] Chu,F.L. / 1998 / Forecasting tourism Demand in Asian-Pacific countries / Annals of Tourism Research 25(3) : 597~615

[journal] Chu,F.L. / 2004 / Forecasting tourism demand: a cubic polynomial approach / Tourism Management 25(2) : 209~218

[journal] Dawes,R. / 1994 / The past and future of forecasting research / International Journal of Forecasting 10(1) : 51~159

[journal] De Gooijer,J.G. / 2006 / 25 years of time series forecasting / International Journal of Forecasting 22(3) : 443~473

[book] Frechtling,D.C. / 2001 / Forecasting Tourism Demand: Methods and Strategies / Oxford:B.H

[journal] Gardner Jr.,E.S. / 1985 / Exponential smoothing: the state of the art / Journal of Forecasting 4(1) : 1~28

[journal] Gardner Jr.,E.S. / 2006 / Exponential smoothing: the state of the art-Part II / International Journal of Forecasting 22(4) : 637~666

[journal] Gardner Jr.,E.S. / 2008 / Exponential smoothing in the telecommunications data / International Journal of Forecasting 24(1) : 170~174

[journal] Gardner Jr.,E.S. / 1985 / Forecasting trends in time series / Management Science 31(10) : 1237~1246

[journal] Gardner Jr.,E.S. / 1989 / Seasonal exponential smoothing with damped trends / Management Science 35(3) : 372~376

[journal] Goh,C. / 2002 / Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention / Tourism Management 23(5) : 499~510

[journal] Hyndman,R.J. / 2002 / A state space framework for automatic forecasting using exponential smoothing methods / International Journal of Forecasting 18(3) : 439~454

[journal] Holt,C.C. / 1957 / Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted averages. O.N.R. Memorandum 52/1957, Carnegie Institute of Technology. reprinted with discussion in 2004 / International Journal of Forecasting 20 : 5~13

[journal] Kulendran,N. / 2001 / Cointegration versus least squares regression / Annals of Tourism Research 28(2) : 291~311

[journal] Law,R. / 2000 / Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting / Tourism Management 21(4) : 331~340

[book] Lewis,C.D. / 1982 / Industrial and Business Forecasting methods / Butterworth: London

[journal] Li,G. / 2005 / Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting / Journal of Travel Research 44(1) : 82~99

[journal] Lim,C. / 2001 / Forecasting tourist arrivals / Annals of Tourism Research 28(4) : 965~977

[journal] Lim,C. / 2002 / Time series forecasts of international travel demand for Australia / Tourism Management 23(4) : 389~396

[book] Makridakis,S. / 1989 / Forecasting methods for management / Wiley

[book] Makridakis,S. / 1998 / Forecasting : Methods and Applications / Wiley

[journal] Martin,C.A. / 1989 / Accuracy of econometric forecasts of tourism / Annals of Tourism Research 16(3) : 407~428

[journal] Oh,C.O. / 2005 / Evaluating time-series models to forecast the demand for tourism in Singapore: comparing within-sample and post-sample results / Journal of Travel Research 43(4) : 404~413

[journal] Pegels,C.C. / 1969 / Exponential forecasting: some new variations / Management Science 15(5) : 311~315

[journal] Sheldon,P.J. / 1993 / Forecasting Tourism: Expenditure versus arrivals / Journal of Travel Research 22(1) : 13~20

[journal] Song,H. / 2008 / Tourism demand modelling and forecasting-a review of recent research / Tourism Management 29(2) : 203~220

[book] Song,H. / 2000 / Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: modern econometric approaches / UK: Elsevier Science

[journal] Taylor,J.W. / 2003 / Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend / International Journal of Forecasting 19(4) : 715~725

[book] Var,T. / 1993 / Tourism forecasting: State-of-the-art techniques. In VNR's encyclopedia of hospitality and tourism / Van Nostrand Reinhold. : 679~696

[journal] Winters,P.R. / 1960 / Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages / Management Science 6 : 324~342

[journal] Witt, S. F. / 1992 / Forecasting domestic tourism demand: application to Las Vegas arrivals data / Journal of Travel Research 31(1) : 36~41

[book] Witt,S.F. / 1992 / Modeling and forecasting demand in tourism / Academic Press

[journal] Witt,S.F. / 1995 / Forecasting tourism demand: a review of empirical research / International Journal of Forecasting 11(3) : 447~475

[journal] Witt,C.A. / 1994 / Forecasting international tourist flows / Annals of Tourism Research 21(3) : 612~628

[other] / http://www.duke.edu

[other] / http://www.visitkorea.or.kr

KJCKorea
Journal Central

Journal of Tourism Sciences 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 2.7