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An Examination of the Economic Impact of the China Risk on the Hospitality Industry in Korea: Using Impulse Response Analysis and Conditional Forecasting Analysis

SONGMINKYUNG 1 Kim, Sang Hyuck 1

1가천대학교

Excellent Accredited

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of China risk on subsequent tourism demand and hospitality industry performance in Korea. A VARX model, an impulse response analysis and a conditional forecasting analysis were used on monthly time series data from January 2000 to December 2016, to realize the study objectives. Results of the analysis reveal that all three macro economic variables relating to China have no influence on Chinese tourism demand in Korea. However, the total number of Chinese tourist arrivals affects the performance of three major hospitality industries in Korea: airlines, lodging, and travel agencies. The outcome of conditional forecasting shows that the impact of China risk on Korean hospitality industries is greater than expected.

Citation status

* References for papers published after 2022 are currently being built.

This paper was written with support from the National Research Foundation of Korea.