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Identifying Seoul’s Apartment Submarkets through Relative Price Responses to Policy : Reconfiguring Non-Gangnam Districts around the 2023 Deregulation and Mortgage Expansion Policy

  • Korea Real Estate Review
  • 2026, 36(3), pp.7~32
  • DOI : 10.35136/krer.36.3.1
  • Publisher : korea real estate research institute
  • Research Area : Social Science > Law > Law of Special Parts > Law of Real Estate
  • Received : July 18, 2026
  • Accepted : September 18, 2026
  • Published : September 30, 2026

Seo, Jeong Hyo 1,  Choi, Jin Ho 1

1세종대학교

Accredited

ABSTRACT

This study identifies housing (apartment) submarkets among Seoul’s 21 non-Gangnam districts defined by relative price responses to policy, focusing on the January 2023 policy shift when regulated-zone implementation coincided with the Special Bogeumjari Loan’s launch. Setting the markets in Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Yongsan as reference, we estimated each non-Gangnam district’s relative price response vector and clustered these vectors. Rather than isolating any single instrument’s causal effect, we presented and classified relative price adjustment and submarket reconfiguration heterogeneity. These market areas were divided into “relatively recovering”, “moderately weakening”, and “persistently weakening” submarkets, and market transitions revealed that a majority of districts are moving toward a greater relative weakness against the reference market. Notably, low-priced, owner-occupied districts with high preferential type exposure are “persistently weakening”, whereas those with lower exposure but higher prices and apartment shares follow recovery paths closer to the reference market. Exposure alone does not ensure price resilience, and post-policy divergence is systematically associated with the preexisting price hierarchy, apartment ratio, and local income base. Therefore, the diagnostic unit of housing policy should transition from administrative zones to submarkets defined by relative price response.

Citation status

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