@article{ART003384086},
author={Lee, Young Min and Kim, Chul Young},
title={Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -},
journal={Korea Real Estate Review},
issn={2092-5395},
year={2026},
volume={36},
number={3},
pages={33-56},
doi={10.35136/krer.36.3.2}
TY - JOUR
AU - Lee, Young Min
AU - Kim, Chul Young
TI - Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -
JO - Korea Real Estate Review
PY - 2026
VL - 36
IS - 3
PB - korea real estate research institute
SP - 33
EP - 56
SN - 2092-5395
AB - This study empirically examines delay risks in urban renewal projects, focusing on stage transition and overall project completion probabilities. It uses a dataset of 152 urban renewal districts in Daegu Metropolitan City to construct survival data that includes complete and incomplete projects, thereby mitigating survivorship bias inherent in analyses limited to completed cases.
The findings indicate a substantially lower 4% overall completion probability in the full sample, compared with 14% in a completed-cases-only model. This suggests that analyses based only on completed projects may overestimate true completion likelihood. In particular, the period between promotion committee approval and establishment of the association represents the main bottleneck, with the lowest transition probability of 48.1% among six administrative intervals . Supplementary Cox proportional hazards analysis also suggests that redevelopment projects tend to experience greater delays during the early-to-mid-stage transition. Furthermore, the scenario analysis shows that improving two consecutive bottleneck intervals yields a greater relative gain than improving a single-interval alone. These findings suggest shifting urban renewal project management from retrospective average-duration tracking to a proactive, probability-based system that identifies key bottlenecks and assesses completion potential.
KW - Urban Renewal Project;Survival Analysis;Stage Transition Probability;Project Completion Probability;Cox Proportional Hazards Model
DO - 10.35136/krer.36.3.2
ER -
Lee, Young Min and Kim, Chul Young. (2026). Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -. Korea Real Estate Review, 36(3), 33-56.
Lee, Young Min and Kim, Chul Young. 2026, "Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -", Korea Real Estate Review, vol.36, no.3 pp.33-56. Available from: doi:10.35136/krer.36.3.2
Lee, Young Min, Kim, Chul Young "Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -" Korea Real Estate Review 36.3 pp.33-56 (2026) : 33.
Lee, Young Min, Kim, Chul Young. Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -. 2026; 36(3), 33-56. Available from: doi:10.35136/krer.36.3.2
Lee, Young Min and Kim, Chul Young. "Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -" Korea Real Estate Review 36, no.3 (2026) : 33-56.doi: 10.35136/krer.36.3.2
Lee, Young Min; Kim, Chul Young. Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -. Korea Real Estate Review, 36(3), 33-56. doi: 10.35136/krer.36.3.2
Lee, Young Min; Kim, Chul Young. Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -. Korea Real Estate Review. 2026; 36(3) 33-56. doi: 10.35136/krer.36.3.2
Lee, Young Min, Kim, Chul Young. Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -. 2026; 36(3), 33-56. Available from: doi:10.35136/krer.36.3.2
Lee, Young Min and Kim, Chul Young. "Survival Analysis of Stage Transition Probabilities and Delay Risk in Urban Renewal Projects - Examining Bottleneck Intervals and Environmental Effects in Daegu Metropolitan City -" Korea Real Estate Review 36, no.3 (2026) : 33-56.doi: 10.35136/krer.36.3.2
