2026, Vol.36, No.3

Korea Real Estate Review 2025 KCI Impact Factor : 0.76

pISSN : 2092-5395 / eISSN : 2733-8339
https://journal.kci.go.kr/krer

This study identifies housing (apartment) submarkets among Seoul’s 21 non-Gangnam districts defined by relative price responses to policy, focusing on the January 2023 policy shift when regulated-zone implementation coincided with the Special Bogeumjari Loan’s launch. Setting the markets in Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Yongsan as reference, we estimated each non-Gangnam district’s relative price response vector and clustered these vectors. Rather than isolating any single instrument’s causal effect, we presented and classified relative price adjustment and submarket reconfiguration heterogeneity. These market areas were divided into “relatively recovering”, “moderately weakening”, and “persistently weakening” submarkets, and market transitions revealed that a majority of districts are moving toward a greater relative weakness against the reference market. Notably, low-priced, owner-occupied districts with high preferential type exposure are “persistently weakening”, whereas those with lower exposure but higher prices and apartment shares follow recovery paths closer to the reference market. Exposure alone does not ensure price resilience, and post-policy divergence is systematically associated with the preexisting price hierarchy, apartment ratio, and local income base. Therefore, the diagnostic unit of housing policy should transition from administrative zones to submarkets defined by relative price response.

This study empirically examines delay risks in urban renewal projects, focusing on stage transition and overall project completion probabilities. It uses a dataset of 152 urban renewal districts in Daegu Metropolitan City to construct survival data that includes complete and incomplete projects, thereby mitigating survivorship bias inherent in analyses limited to completed cases. The findings indicate a substantially lower 4% overall completion probability in the full sample, compared with 14% in a completed-cases-only model. This suggests that analyses based only on completed projects may overestimate true completion likelihood. In particular, the period between promotion committee approval and establishment of the association represents the main bottleneck, with the lowest transition probability of 48.1% among six administrative intervals . Supplementary Cox proportional hazards analysis also suggests that redevelopment projects tend to experience greater delays during the early-to-mid-stage transition. Furthermore, the scenario analysis shows that improving two consecutive bottleneck intervals yields a greater relative gain than improving a single-interval alone. These findings suggest shifting urban renewal project management from retrospective average-duration tracking to a proactive, probability-based system that identifies key bottlenecks and assesses completion potential.

This study uses monthly data from February 2019 to January 2026 to examine the dynamic relationships among Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) returns, changes in investor deposits, individual net buying, and apartment purchases by young households in Seoul. Vector autoregressions (VARs) (1), (2), and (5) are used as baseline, supplementary, and extended specifications, respectively, while controlling for the pandemic and the Bank of Korea base rate. VAR(1) reveals no significant stock-market-related variables. In VAR(2), only KOSPI returns show limited predictive power, which weakens after controlling for the base rate. KOSPI returns and investor deposits are significant in VAR(5); however, the investor-deposit result is not reproduced in the shorter-lag models. Because these findings are sensitive to lag length and macro-financial controls, they should be interpreted as preliminary evidence of limited, exploratory aggregate-level dynamic relationships rather than causal evidence of fund transfers.