2012, Vol.36, No.2

Journal of Tourism Sciences 2023 KCI Impact Factor : 2.7

pISSN : 1226-0533 / eISSN : 2713-6388
https://journal.kci.go.kr/JTS

Forecasting demand for mega-events is prerequisite for event managers since accurate demand is necessary to determine supply for mega-events. In this respect, the purpose of this study is to compare three types of forecasting methods when predicting demand for Expo visitors. These forecasting methods include 1) forecasts with willingness-to-visit(WTV), 2) forecasts with WTV+Gruber index, and 3) forecasts with WTV+Self-confidence index. The last two methods reflect feasibility rate. To this end national surveys were conducted to residents of 16 metropolitan cities and provinces using telephone and internet surveys. The results indicate that approximately 25 million Expo visitors were predicted by method 1(forecasts with WTV only), 10 million visitors were predicted by method 2(forecasts with WTV+Gruber index), and 18 million visitors were predicted by method 3(forecasts with WTV+Self-confidence index). The findings imply that forecasts with willingness-to-visit only overestimated Expo visitors as compared to such forecasts with feasibility rate as Gruber and Self-confidence indices. Thus, the findings of this study will provide researchers and event managers with appropriate forecasting method when predicting demand for mega-events.

This study aims to analyse the main outcomes and limitations of the Korean Wave (Hanryu) related tourism generated by both private and public sectors. The results of interviews are consistent with prior research indicating that Hanryu tourism has contributed to the growth and diversification of inbound tourism market, opportunities to develop high value-added tourism products, motivation for visitiation to rural areas, and overcoming a low-demand season in winter. However, this research also pointed out some challenges for, namely of the absence of a middle and long term plan for an inbound tourism policy, lack of tourism programs and facilities to genuinely experience Hanryu, and overcoming short stay/experience of Hanryu tourism products. From the findings, the following five key suggestions are proposed to promote inbound tourism utilizing the Sin-Hanryu (Neo-Korean Wave) led by K-pop: 1) differentiating tourism marketing by target regions/countries; 2) corresponding to the characteristics and demands of the Hanryu consumers; 3) developing high value-added tourism products utilizing the Hanryu; 4) promoting the Hanryu tourism by use of new media like SNS; and 5) organizing a private-public and a domestic-overseas partnership system for Hanryu tourism.

This research aims to analyze the political power process affecting the policy change of South Korea’s tour guide qualification system. For this purpose, previous studies on the qualification system, policy change and policy advocacy coalitions were reviewed, and the results of the related researches were discussed. In this study, a research model was developed based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework, which addresses the political power process of advocacy coalitions. A research proposition also was established to identify the influencing factors forming the political power process of advocacy coalitions. Major findings of the research demonstrate that two advocacy coalitions; 'employment-obligation' and 'employment-recommendation', were established and the policy change were made as a result of the resulting power process of these two coalitions. That is, the 'employment-obligation' program was adopted by the coalition of pro-policy change. The findings highlight that this coalition is formed by horizontal networks, reveals shared values and a diversity of strategies. In conclusion, it was suggested that future studies on policy change should employ inclusive approaches covering rational policy change process as well as political power process.